At home at fenway

Keeping on eye on Dustin, Papi, Youk & a few good books

JOSE CAN I SEE…..your navel ?

Posted by athomeatfenway on May 14, 2011

Bet you Jose soon makes the wrong kind of headlines.

Now comes the word over the internet that Jose Bautista, currently on a pace to hit over 50 home runs again & batting .350 was hotly pursued by the Red Sox in 2009 and 2010 before he blew up with 54 home runs last season.

Did the Theo have the inside scoop that Jose was chugging Dominican milkshakes and would start hitting a homer every 10 at bats instead of every 30 ?

How long will it take for this guy’s bubble to burst into an ugly steroid scandal?

He is 30 years old.  Before age 29, he hit 59 career homeruns over the equivalent of 3 full seasons. 

Picture a typical MLB season of .238 BA with 19 home runs.  That was Jose production pace  when he was a part timer on 5 different MLB teams (2004 to 2009).

Picture a typical minor league season of .285 BA with 17 home runs.  That was Jose’s pace in the bushes from 2001 to 2008.

The current numbers are just not credible.

This of course compels one to ask about his potential, his age, and whether or not he has been injecting HGH into his navel.

You might suggest that Rico Petrocelli had a similar power blip in 1969 when he hit 40 homeruns after never having hit more than 18.  But that doesn’t really work as an argument because  Rico was still young and growing at age 26.  And his home run rate improved from 1 in 29 AB’s (pre-1969) to 1 in 18 at bats in his best homer years (1969 to 1971).  Not a crazy improvement.  Credible.

Or you might say that Cecil Fielder blew up like Bautista when he came out of nowhere to hit 51 home runs in 1990, never having come close to that power in previous years.  But the fact was that prior to 1990 his Toronto Blue Jay coaches gave him few at bats, choosing to play Fred McGriff ahead of him at 1st base and Rance Mulliniks before him at D.H..  Guys with a shape like Cecil struggle to buy clothes off the rack, to squeeze into an airline seat, and to get at bats. 

Well, back in the day that was true.  After the 2010 season at age 26, his son Prince had 192 home runs in 2,958 at bats.  At the same age Cecil had 31 dingers in 506 career at bats.  Things have changed.  Cecil was a victim of discrimination against Big Daddys.

Bautista’s power surge is about as legitimate as Brady Anderson’s 50 home runs in 1996.  Which is to say it is i-l-l-e-g-t-i-m-a-t-e. 

In 15 seasons, Brady hit more than 20 home runs three times:  21, 24 and 50.

In 1996, Brady hit 1 homerun every 12 at bats.   For the rest of his career he hit a dinger every 37 at bats.

Come on.  It just doesn’t happen without cheating.

In the first 85 season of the 20th century the 50 HR level was reached 17 times.

In the 24 seasons since the dawn of PEDs, it has been achieved 25 times.

There is no proof yet.  But I’d be testing Jose Bautista every week. And checking his navel for needle marks.

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